247 Sports: The battle for the Big 12 title will be a two-horse race
The teams in the Big 12 can be thought of in three tiers — the two contenders, the six solid squads in the middle and the Kansas teams.
Oklahoma is the heavy favorite to repeat as Big 12 champions, according to a preseason model used here to assign each FBS team a rating and project the outcome of every FBS game this season. But if the Sooners falter, it will likely be TCU that takes advantage and wins the conference.
The Big 12 has two Top 10 teams in Oklahoma (No. 4) and TCU (No. 10), according to the preseason model’s rankings. The next five best teams in the conference are bunched between No. 24 (Baylor) and No. 48 (Texas Tech), with Iowa State (No. 64) not far behind. Bringing up the rear in the Big 12 are Kansas State (No. 83) and Kansas, who checks in at No. 108 after going 0-12 last season.
According to 10,000 simulations of this season, Oklahoma has a 47.8% chance to win the Big 12 and TCU has a 25.5% shot to win it. The other eight teams in the conference have a combined 26.6% to take home the Big 12 title. Only three of them have better than a five percent chance to capture the conference crown — Baylor (8.0%), West Virginia (6.7%) and Oklahoma State (5.7%).
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